If you are familiar with Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow, you will know the basic model of human decision-making: System 1 is fast and intuitive, while System 2 is slow and deliberate. For decades, this framework has helped explain how humans make decisions under uncertainty.
Artificial intelligence introduces something fundamentally different. Recent research proposes a third mode of cognition, System 3, defined as artificial reasoning that exists outside the human brain but participates directly in how we think.
System 3 is not simply a tool. It generates answers, explanations, and judgments that people increasingly adopt as their own. Researchers describe this behavior as cognitive surrender: accepting AI outputs with minimal scrutiny. Experiments show that when AI was correct, people performed far better. When AI was wrong, performance dropped below human-only baselines, while confidence still increased.
We have seen technology reshape skills before. Calculators changed mental arithmetic. GPS changed navigation. Automatic transmission reduced manual driving proficiency. Those tools outsourced tasks. AI increasingly outsources judgment.
The Premier League offers an unexpected example. During a recent FA Cup match between Aston Villa and Newcastle United, VAR was not used. The match produced multiple controversial decisions, including an offside goal allowed and a missed penalty decision. Commentators and managers suggested referees may have become overly reliant on VAR.
This does not imply referees have lost competence. Instead, cognition adapts when artificial verification becomes consistently available. Responsibility subtly shifts. Decisions are made differently because external validation exists.
VAR, providing external artificial verification, behaves like System 3 cognition. Referee intuition mirrors System 1. Deliberation and positioning reflect System 2. When System 3 is present, humans recalibrate how much internal reasoning they apply.
The research distinguishes between cognitive offloading and cognitive surrender. Offloading is strategic delegation, such as using a calculator. Surrender occurs when critical evaluation stops altogether. Under time pressure, humans increasingly defer to external cognition – they surrender to System 3.
For organizations, this matters deeply. Decisions are now formed through hybrid cognition: human intuition, human reasoning, and artificial judgment. The risk is not that AI replaces thinking. The risk is that organizations stop exercising deliberate reasoning.
When that happens, expertise weakens, accountability becomes unclear, and confidence grows faster than competence. AI reshapes how decisions are formed rather than simply accelerating them.
VAR has not ruined refereeing. It has reshaped refereeing cognition. The same shift is occurring across product management, leadership, engineering, and strategy. AI is becoming System 3 for knowledge work.
The critical question is not whether we should use AI. The question is whether we remain capable when it is unavailable. Occasionally the system will not be there, and organizations will discover how much thinking they have outsourced.
Resources:
- https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/yk25n_v1
- https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/13507741/eddie-howe-says-referees-are-too-reliant-on-var-after-making-lots-of-errors-in-newcastle-win-against-aston-villa
- https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/alan-shearer-var-premier-league-bbc-sport-wayne-rooney-b2920576.html?
- https://www.researchgate.net/publication/399711077_Thinking-Fast_Slow_and_Artificial_How_AI_is_Reshaping_Human_Reasoning_and_the_Rise_of_Cognitive_Surrender
